SpaceX Hosts First Earnings Call Since Its IPO. Is SpaceX a Buy Ahead of the Aug. 4 Earnings Release?
After the market close on July 20, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +3.08%) said it will release second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4.
The report will coincide with SpaceX’s first earnings call with analysts as a public company and comes at a pivotal time, with the stock hovering near its lowest point since its June 12 initial public offering (IPO). As of the market close on July 21, SpaceX shares are down 40% from its intraday high of $225.64 on June 16.
Here’s what investors should look for when SpaceX reports and if the growth stock is a buy now.
Image source: Getty Images.
Welcome to the public stage
Aug. 4 will be Elon Musk’s first earnings call as chief executive officer of a company that isn’t Tesla (TSLA +2.57%). Investors should tune in to see how the earnings call is conducted, whether its format differs from Tesla’s, and whether it leans more on SpaceX’s other executives than on Musk.
It would also be worth paying attention to how SpaceX releases supplemental materials, whether it includes useful information in its presentation decks and earnings release, or whether investors will need to dig for details in its quarterly 10-Q filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Space Exploration Technologies
Today’s Change
(3.08%) $3.69
Current Price
$123.54
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$120.36 – $129.88
52wk Range
$119.68 – $225.64
Volume
526.9K
Avg Vol
130M
SpaceX’s Model 3 moment
Since 2023, SpaceX has been responsible for launching more than 80% of the world’s mass put into orbit. The bulk of that mass has come from SpaceX’s Starlink network of low earth orbit broadband and mobile satellites.
With 9,600 Starlink satellites in orbit as of March 31 and 10.3 million Starlink subscribers, Starlink is instrumental to SpaceX’s revenue and free cash flow growth. SpaceX has a mix of consumer and enterprise solutions. As it has added more customers, its revenue per user has declined. So investors should tune in to SpaceX’s plans to expand Starlink and whether its pricing model will change as it improves connectivity.
In its May 20 Form S-1 IPO filing with the SEC, SpaceX said it expects to begin deploying its next-generation Starlink V3 satellites on Starship launchers in the second half of 2026, and it is on schedule to do so. SpaceX planned to launch its 13th Starship test flight on July 16 but scrubbed it and rescheduled it for July 23. Part of the payload includes 20 Starlink V3 satellites.
Compared to V2 satellites, V3 will offer a 10-fold improvement in downlink capacity and a 22-fold increase in uplink capacity — adding to Starlink’s competitive advantages.
All told, Starlink could prove to be as important to SpaceX as the Model 3 was to Tesla. The Model 3 provided a high-volume electric vehicle at a competitive price, vaulting Tesla from a struggling company to a cash cow. Without Model 3, Tesla would have lacked the resources needed to expand its robotaxi fleet and the Optimus line of humanoid robots.
AI satellites
Scaling Starlink is a bold endeavor in and of itself. But SpaceX has far more ambitious plans, namely, deploying millions of artificial intelligence (AI) compute satellites in space.
SpaceX’s February 2026 acquisition of xAI is instrumental in its AI compute constellation plans because it effectively gives SpaceX a major internal customer and a sandbox for testing satellite performance.
What’s more, SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla are collaborating on the Terafab facility in Texas to mass-produce AI chips, enabling these companies to secure their own compute rather than relying on other suppliers. SpaceX is also building a factory of more than 11-million-square feet in Texas called Gigafactory, which will handle end-to-end production of AI satellites — from solar panels to the AI compute modules.
These projects will be incredibly costly, take years to scale, and have no clear timeline for profitability. SpaceX’s earnings call should provide investors with updates on these projects.
A potential merger with Tesla
With SpaceX now public, some folks are speculating that it’s only a matter of time before Tesla and SpaceX attempt to merge. After all, SpaceX bought xAI even though there were several valid reasons Tesla could have bought it instead. Tesla is a major customer of xAI, with xAI playing a role in Tesla’s robotics, automotive vehicles, and energy storage projects.
A merger between SpaceX and Tesla would make Terafab a unified project under one umbrella rather than a partnership. And Tesla may be able to assist SpaceX with its energy storage needs.
Investors will likely be looking for insight on the SpaceX earnings call about its considerations for a merger with Tesla or why it may downplay merger speculation. Even if SpaceX and Tesla shareholders were vote to approve a merger, it would still face intense regulatory scrutiny.
SpaceX has a lot to prove
Aug. 4 also is a critical day for SpaceX investors because it opens the door to a major share unlocking just two days later, letting early investors who were barred from selling after the IPO dispose of shares on public markets.
So far, SpaceX has been a tale of insatiable investor euphoria that briefly made it worth more than Amazon and Microsoft, only to have it fall as investors questioned its viability and path to profitability.
SpaceX has done an excellent job outlining a roadmap that features bold plans for AI compute satellites, lunar economies, colonies on Mars, and interplanetary travel. But SpaceX must fill the gaps in that roadmap before the stock becomes a reasonable buy for long-term investors.
